Mortgage lending to grow 1.6% this year, up from -0.1% in 2023, EY ITEM Club reveals.
EY forecasts that mortgage lending will continue to rise over the coming year, increasing by 2.6% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, providing interest rates continue to be gradually cut as predicted.
It suggests that borrowing appetite of UK households has started to pick up following August and November’s interest rate cuts and as housing affordability improves.
Elsewhere, data shows that write-off rates on UK mortgages are forecast to rise slightly to 0.004% in 2024, up from 0.002% in 2023.
However, it predicts that these will ease back to 0.002% in 2025 and 0.003% in 2026, driven by low unemployment and household income growth.
EY UK head of banking and capital markets Dan Cooper says: “Accelerating growth in lending is welcome news to UK banks, which have recently reported better-than-expected third quarter results. The expectation that loan defaults will stabilise is also positive, and will provide a further boost to banks’ balance sheets.”
EY UK financial service managing partner Anna Anthony adds: The UK’s macroeconomic environment has been extremely challenging in recent years, but it appears we are now turning a corner.”
“Although we are yet to see the full economic response to the Autumn Budget and the US election, deepening signs of economic recovery are giving firms and households increasing reason for optimism. Falling inflation and interest rate cuts should boost borrowing appetite over time, and the outlook for bank lending in the UK is more positive than it has been in a number of years.”